What next Philippines?

What next Philippines? Now that the siege of the posh Manila Peninsula Hotel is over and Senator Antonio Trillanes IV, BGen. Danilo Lim and their cohorts arrested, what now? As we wrote earlier, popular support and mobilization for their call to overthrow of the Arroyo administration will not happen.

Although their actions seemed premeditated, it didn't seem well planned. The expected support from military sympathizers or leftist-recruited mass supporters did not materialize. Importantly, no credible and legitimate potential leader or replacement to President Arroyo stepped forward. Arroyo has learned from past events and was prepared to crush any extra-constitutional and conspiratorial action. Military and police units immediately overwhelmed them.

The main issue is the legitimacy of President Arroyo, weakened by serious allegations of election fraud and systemic corruption. Yet, despite several coup d'etat attempts, exposes, demonstrations, and personal insults, she has managed to stay in power.

The singular failure of the opposition is to present a legitimate alternative.

The tacky jokes at the losers have emerged. One comment at the Philippine Star website lamented at the country's coup d'etat hobby, which has become too expensive. A reporter quoted an Arroyo official on the possible criminal charges against 78-year old, ex-Vice President Teofisto Guingona. The official said they won't probably file charges against him because of his age. After all, "The Filipino is worth wheezing for...", referring to how teargas flushed out the Peninsula plotters and the VP's frail look.

The failing of civil society, or parts of it, is to ally with discredited politicians or inept ones like former President Estrada in the hope that he would delegate the management of the country to them. Well Estrada took them for a ride and let his corrupt friends and (some) members of family enrich themselves.

Some of the politically-inclined religious leaders have proven themselves to be politically inept.

While Philippine pre-colonial history is replete with strong, charismatic, warrior-leaders, the emphasis was always on their track record (or lack of it) of charismatic leadership, performance (in war and providing for the well-being of their followers), and integrity.

Who among our visible crop of leaders have these traits?

There will probably be more attempts to overthrow Arroyo, but until someone steps forward who is considered a potential legitimate national leader, these attempts will continue to fail.

In the meantime, let us be wary of efforts to curtail civil liberties. This is non-negotiable.

Glorietta Blast, SoCal wildfires, man-made or nature's fury?

The past week hasn't been good safety-wise. In Pakistan, a suicide bomber attempting to kill former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto failed but ended up killing about 136 people and injuring over 300. The suicide bombing brings Pakistan to the brink of chaos politically. Current President Gen. Pervez Musharraf is under strong pressure from Ms. Bhutto who returned recently to discuss power sharing arrangements with Gen. Musharraf and to participate in the forthcoming January parliamentary elections.

In Makati City, Metro Manila, Philippines, a strong explosion at the trendy and glitzy Glorietta II mall killed 11, injured at least 112, with three missing. There was confusion as to the cause of the explosion. Initial reports and off-the-cuff statements by police, military officers, and opportunistic politicians suggested that it was either a terroristic act or a military conspiracy.

Recent statements from investigators are downplaying the bomb scenario and are focusing on the deadly brew of methane and diesel gases from diesel tanks, septic tanks, and wastewater treatment facilities. If this is the case, what does this say of Ayala's environmental, safety, and engineering protocols? Ayala should clear this asap.

In California, close to 750,000 homes in seven counties have been ordered evacuated because of wildfires fueled by the infamous Sta. Winds and bone-dry conditions. California's fire department reports 14 active fires and three contained. About 373,000 acres, or 583 square are currently burning all over the state. In San Diego County alone 346,000 homes have been ordered evacuated. Over a 1,300 homes and structures have burned down. There are two reported fatalities, and dozens of injuries. The wildfires are not going to die down anytime soon. One friend emailed from San Diego saying that she could see the fires from her son's bedroom. There are reports of fires jumping the ten-lane Insterstate 15 highway.

Our prayers go out to all those killed, injured, who've lost their homes and businesses and to their suffering families.

I can't help but think though if better planning, a focus on security, attention to environmental impact issues, and a genuine concern for the community or stakeholders might have prevented or minimized the destruction and injury.