Project Age-Population Pyramid from the New Politics Institute
“Change is the only constant;” so said Heraclitus, Isaac Asimov, Disraeli, Crosby, and many others. The only exception is from vending machines as R.C. Gallagher noted. Change, the transition from one state to something different, is no more evident than in the election of a person of color to the presidency of the world’s most powerful nation. What are the implications for his generation and for Filipinos?
First is that the United States and the whole world are in flux. While Tom Brokaw’s “Greatest Generation” was involved in a horrific war and its aftermath, Generation X dealt with issues of relevance, meaning, and identity. Today, there is a third generation, Generation Y or the Millennials; those born 1982 and after. All three generations number in the tens to hundreds of millions (worldwide) and have different ways of looking at the world, its problems and opportunities, and how to move forward. When one adds to this the diversity in terms of race and ethnicity, class, education, experience, skills, worldviews, health, and access to opportunities; the differences and tensions are quite significant. How do we communicate and relate with each other in ways that support and validate one another’s uniqueness and potentials? This was what Brokaw was probably referring to when he said something like, “With Obama’s election, we are in a post-modern era and I don’t know what post-modern means…”
Second, the U.S. and the world faces a “long-tail” of problems and challenges, which are products of change. Peace, order, and security are problematic in many areas of the world. These range from the nebulous Al Qaeda to African fratricides, secessionist movements, failed states, drug wars, piracy, human smuggling, etc. Also, after years of stalling and obfuscation, the environmental issues of climate change, deforestation, and habitat degradation have now come back to haunt us. Coupled with disasters of biblical scale in both developed and developing countries, we, the human species, will have to make difficult decisions on how we do business and conduct our own lifestyles. As Gandhi said, “Live simply, so others may simply live.”
The third serious challenge is the train wreck of the American economy that is on course to derail the world economy. Look at it as the 1997 Asian financial crisis, the 1998 Brazilian and Russian meltdown, the 2001 Argentinian crisis, Mexico in 1984 and 1994, among others, all rolled into one in the United States. Contrarian economic gurus such as Eric Janzen and Columbia professor Nouriel Roubini generally predict a two-step deflation-inflation, severe and L-type unemployment, recession, and depression era for the next few years. They’re looking at a minimum 10M unemployed in the U.S. alone in the coming months. Welcome to a world of constant economic crises. Will corporations still look and operate the same way as last month? Will they have to drastically modify their structures, practices, and outlook? Will we see mergers or a splintering to smaller, more manageable units?
We’ve discussed changing demographics and waves of crises and challenges. The flip side of this pessimistic aspect of this sea of change in the TOG era is the opportunities inherent. Obama’s landslide win proved that that there is a body out there that resonates with his vision of authentic change and progressive politics. Whether his administration will deliver on his rhetoric or not, major segments of the boomer, X, and most especially the millennial generations have been mobilized over the last 18 months on his plans for the environment, social justice, health care, peace, business reform, and human rights. It will be difficult to return the genie of “new politics” and social movements to her bottle. I expect these generations and individuals to be more proactive in extending the social energy generated to push forth their change agenda.
Because of his decisive electoral victory, Obama has set the tone and standard in two specific areas. The first is how he waged his campaign. By 2010, there will be many countries, including the Philippines, which will have national elections or political transitions. Expect politicians of every stripe from the national down to the local level and in democratic countries to study closely, adopt, and implement his strategy of movement style mobilization with a well-oiled and efficient organization. Look at more costly but more sophisticated mobilizations and campaigns in the Web 2.0/online and real worlds.
Along with electoral movements, expect to see and hear more initiatives from the following sectors: women, health, energy, environment, hunger, housing/shelter, mental health, prison, drugs, sustainability, animal rights, habitat protection, voting and campaign finance, pro-life/pro-choice, race relations, role of Church social action, LGBT, indigenous peoples, employment, social security, etc. sectors. Who will be able to best organize and mobilize the most? Which sector/movement will be able to articulate best their agenda and interest? It will be noisy as it will combative, but participation is essential if power is to be redistributed and social justice implemented.
Obviously, there are profitable solutions to today’s problems. Changing demographics indicate new needs. An aging population, many of whom are unhealthy, will require care giving, medical attention, a change in diet and lifestyle. I do not posit an increase in costs due to an aging population, as changing demographics will have to account for migration, fertility rates, and a greater push for a healthy lifestyle. The important thing to note is that there are needed services, products, and faciliteis. Aside from the government, civil society will increasingly be tasked to provide these services and products at cost and for profit.
The same goes for environmental rehabilitation. Climate change and habitat destruction are forcing us to develop new technologies, specifically renewable energy, new modes of transportation, and materials. Human society will have to fundamentally retool its resource and energy bases. The race is on for new technologies, new services, and new ways of thinking about these issues. Vision, initiative, perspective, knowledge, information, skills, and creativity will be needed. Who will be the technical, social, moral entrepreneurs of the TOG era? Green innovation is expected to be a $1,370 to $2040 BILLION sector by the years 2020 if the right policies and incentives are in place.
In the U.S. alone, the TriplePundit blog quoted a UC Berkeley study, which highlighted that for every $100 million invested in the renewable sector 2,700 new jobs are created. With Obama intending to invest $15Billion a year for the next 10 years, at least 400,000 new jobs will be created just in the renewable energy sector alone.
For developing countries, such as the Philippines, we have a golden opportunity to do three things. The first is to leapfrog into green technology and industrialization. Scientists and researchers in developing countries, hampered by lack of resources, have been creative and persistent in addressing energy and water shortages, inadequate infrastructure, and the need sewerage. The poorest of the poor or those in the bottom of the pyramid (BOP) will need and are willing to pay for these services and infrastructure if the price is right. This is a large market and coupled with the other income classes may be able to create the second important aspect of a sustainable economy: a domestic market built on green innovation. The third aspect is the tremendously profitable area of retrofitting. By retrofitting, I mean, modifying what we use today to make it greener and more efficient. Retrofitting is a good alternative if capital is scarce and expensive to access.
Imagine a nascent auto sector fueled by biofuels and alternative fuels. I wrote previously of vegetable fuels and CNG powering vehicles in the Philippines. Check out the Colorado State University-EnviroFit.org’s initiative of retrofitting millions of polluting 2-stroke tricycles in the Philippines. They recently won the Rolex Award for environmental innovation, which will enable them to fund retrofitting of these tricycles at $300/unit. Other sources of funding will come from the monetization of carbon credits.
Imagine deforested mountains reforested for habitat restoration, biofuels, ecotourism, materials, and biotechnology. Imagine rehabilitated marine areas for ecotourism and sustainable fishing. Dare to use bamboo for a variety of things from clothing, to food, to bikes, skateboards, building materials, and furniture? How will developing countries transform wastes into resources? How do we make money out of hot air?
Check out Eng Chan’s cutting edge furniture using recycled automotive engine parts.
Metro Manila alone, a megalopolis of an estimated 20M, is in need of an infrastructure, housing, communication, transportation, and environmental quality upgrade if it is to compete in a multi-polar world of the new millennium.
There are lessons to be learned and perspectives to be gleaned from Obama’s election. Filipinos need to go beyond what neoconservative and progressive pundits have been spouting and forge a vision and roadmap for FilAm and Filipino progress.
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