Online is the straight line to the White House: LANDSLIDE win expected for Barack “Web 2.0” Obama

from the 1M strong for Barack Obama Facebook page

Barack “Web 2.0” Obama will win the 2008 U.S. presidential elections by a landslide.

A week ago, after writing an article on why Catholics could vote for Obama, I was intrigued at the wealth of information I found on the topic on the Web. Then after watching the endorsement of Colin Powell of Obama, I was further intrigued. I Googled keywords one wouldn’t expect to be related such as “Republicans supporting Obama,” “conservatives for Obama,” “Joe the Plumber supports Obama,” or “Joe Six-packer for Obama,” and so on. The Google results were overwhelming. The articles were likewise witty and humorous. I thought there was something going on here. The blizzard of favorable endorsements of Obama and Obama’s sticky presence online seemed to point to what Malcolm Gladwell has famously labeled as the tipping point. The other phenomena that seemed to be jumping out was Chris Anderson’s long tail, wherein, to stretch his definition further, many people were writing about different aspects of Obama. Importantly, Obama supporters were doing the research on issues and counterpunching for him.

Notwithstanding the tsunami of polls indicating a surge for Obama, Web 2.0 analyses also indicate this observation. In fact, one internet marketing website predicted as early as June 2008 that Obama would win. An Irish bookie has even started paying out bets on an Obama win to the tune of $1.5M.

Web 2.0, coined by Tim O'Reilly and John Battelle, generally refers to how we think of and use the worldwide web and the internet as a platform of activities such as communications, information generation and dissemination, education, social networking, social media, and marketing, among others. Web 2.0 harnesses community and collective intelligence and enables a “richer user-experience.” It encourages the user to innovate. It is powerfully egalitarian because diversity and uniqueness are appreciated and valued

It becomes even more powerful when online activity translates into real world action in creative ways.

The Obama campaign has achieved this.

Here are some crude numbers and observations.

Obama has a significant online presence. Google his name and you will get 79M page results. Google John McCain and you have 18.9M page results only or 4x less. Obama’s slogan “Change we can believe in” resulted in an even larger 97.4M page results. “Sarah Palin” returned 43.7M page results compared to “Joe Biden” with 20M. However, the first two pages summarizing the results had websites that weren’t favorable to her.

Obama has a significant online community. In the rapidly expanding social networking site Facebook, Obama has nearly 4x more supporters at 2.24M compared to McCain’s 595,167 supporters. In the older MySpace, Obama again has 4x more friends at 771,493 compared to McCain’s 195,017. In comparing what goes on in their respective Facebook pages, Obama’s page again is more active with 463,890 wall posts and 1,664 notes compared to 118,199 wall posts and 125 notes for McCain. McCain though has a discussion section containing 6,108 discussion topics, while Obama has no such section.

However, there is a parallel Facebook group and website called Barack Obama (One Million Million Strong for Barack) with 835,271 members, 54,783 discussion topics, and even 4,221 pictures posted.

Obama is sticky online. By sticky, we mean content online either gets us to return to the website or it gets our attention. Obama is not only sticky but his online reputation is positive. On the widely successful video sharing website YouTube for example Obama video results numbered 571,000 to McCain’s 176,000. Palin video results numbered 90,700 compared to Joe Biden’s 32,100. If one takes the negative aspect, anti-Obama videos have 410 compared to McCain’s 229. Anti-Palin resulted in 95, while anti-Biden resulted in two videos. However, there are anti -Republican groups that consistently upload informative and critical GOP videos. One active group is Brave New Films which has 880 video results. “Joe the plumber” had video results 3,430 of various slants. “Joe six pack” had video results 740, again of various slants.

The Tech President website, which provides some of the most useful Web 2.0 analyses of the election campaign notes that Obama has a whopping 85,082,123 YouTube views compared to McCain’s 22,598,936. In addition, Obama racked up a humongous 14,548,809.05 viewing hours compared to McCain’s 488,093.01 hours. PCWorld has noted that YouTube videos are ‘kinder’ to Obama .

“Blog mentions” as measured by Technorati shows Obama leading McCain 4,624 to 3,928. Gov. Palin had a huge increase to 3,257, probably due to her numerous gaffes.

Obama’s website according to Hitwise, an internet research company, has a 67.19% market share compared to McCain’s 32.81%.

Obama is even the "Brand of the Year" awardee as declared by Advertising Age/Ad age.

In what online cave is McCain living in these days?

from Underconsideration.com

Online to real line

Obama has better leveraged Web 2.0 in myriad ways.

The Obama movement. Obama supporters from Facebook to Myspace to those who registered at MyObama have demonstrated their support with the best indicator, money. David Plouffer, the Obama campaign manager reported that 632,000 new donors donated quite a big part of the $150M raised during the month of September 2008, bringing the total number of those who have donated to more than 3.1 million. According to him, the average amount of the donations is $86. Two significant observations are; many are repeat donors and many are probably doing more than just donating. Take a look at the MyObama website . Not only does it ask for donations, it provides the online tools to do other campaign related actions in the real world including networking through its Neighbor-to-Neighbor initiative . Thus, unlike McCain’s or even earlier, Clinton’s, Obama’s campaign is highly interactive, not only online, but offline as well. The creativity is astounding. Can someone email this Obama tax-calculator to Joe the plumber and Republican supporters to see how much taxes they’ll be paying? Community organizing, derided by Giuliani and Palin, is coming back to haunt the GOP. Obama directly has at least 1.5 million active volunteers that generate 400,000 voter contacts a day.

Obama the counterpuncher movement. The movement that the Obama campaign has spawned is engaged in a variety of activities. One overlooked activity is counterpunching . By counterpunching, I refer to how Obama supporters are responding to and proactively strategizing in quad-media (radio, TV, press, Web) the Rovian sleaze, smear, scare tactics.

Nancy Scola writes about how the internet is killing the Rovian tactic of robocalls

Obama leaning websites have documented and MAPPED interactively the hows, whys, and number of McCain's negative attacks. They’ve deconstructed and showed what’s wrong with this tactic and have generated an increasingly negative view of the McCain strategy. The 4.2M member political movement MoveOn.org has played a tremendous, creative, fundraising, networking and so important part in the get-the-vote out and organizing for Obama. For its final push it has at least 100,000 volunteers organizing parties wherein the attendees will do campaign calls and other related actions. Peter Daou has documented the rise of what is popularly called netroots and how the sector has influenced the narratives of the traditional media, especially in painting a favorable image of Obama.

Go for the heart and the wallet will follow. Reminiscent of Gawad Kalinga’s message of hope, faith-based, heroic, and servant action, the fundraising power of Obama reflects the resonance that Americans have for the message of hope and change that Obama espouses. As David Brooks noted, the fundamentals are there for Obama. The debacle of the Bush administration, the indiscretions of Republicans, the rising wealth gap, the slide into poverty of many Americans, and the environmental crisis are realities that need to be addressed. Obama’s campaign seeks to address these issues. McCain insists on fighting and continuing a destructive economic program with environmental consequences. Even his pro-life platform is contested. Fundamentally, Obama presents an even tempered, dedicated, and passionate president-to-be similar to the David Palmer character in the hugely successful 24 Fox tv series. McCain comes out as McNasty. The message of positive change and hope will most often resonate with people. That is how humans are wired. Lastly, favorable stories generate favorable stories. All these has resulted in Obama raising $600M.

Mobilize-organize, organize-mobilize. The Obama rallies from the primaries, overseas, to the Democratic convention, to the massive, massive rallies in red states are very impressive. It reminds me of much earlier political mobilizations. The Cory Aquino campaign, People Power I, and People II, which I witnessed all had the same energy, mobilization, and level of organization ultimately led to the ousting of Marcos first and Erap Estrada second. The same dynamics are unfolding and I am confident that McCain will lose this elections. People resonate with Obama and his campaign messages. Everyday people are getting more comfortable with him. His big ears and his awk-awful-ward dance steps are endearing him to people. He is surrounded with a bevy of competent and articulate campaign workers and backstopped by decentralized, but passionate and skillful netroots.

Plus, what social scientists call elite cleavages have transformed into a gushing rush to the Obama campaign. Big donors and bigwigs in a number of sectors have publicly supported him. Google, Buffet, Oprah, the onslaught of newspaper endorsements, the Clinton power couple, the Kennedy clan, George Soros, and the Republican defections, signal wide top societal support of Obama.

Numbers in. The online world has given us the opportunity to look at trends and polling on the election. All reflect a rout of McCain. The polling blog FiveThirtyEight.com which simulates the election 10,000 times a day using different polls asserts an Obama win. Website owner Nate Silver says that early voting is trending Obama. New registrants will most like vote and will vote Obama. Enthusiasm levels are higher for Democrats then Republicans. Minority groups of various stripes-remember the immigrant scapegoating and gay-bashing?- are turning up for Obama. Heck, even kids mock-voted for Obama.

Another website, 3BlueDudes, albeit leaning Democrat, lists and presents the various polls and projections on the election . Again, most are favoring Obama.

Since the 2004 campaigns and elections, the internet and Web have played an increasingly critical role. Obama, following Dean’s lead, has fully embraced it. McCain’s campaign hasn’t and it reflects the wide gulf separating them, not only on the power of the internet, but on fundamental issues of character, temperament, economic and social policies, as well as foreign policies.

Barack Obama will be the 44^th president of the United States on November 5, 2008.

As Dr. Noel Flores of Chicago noted; "IT will be historic."

Yes we can! at Mile High

Last 28th August, St. Agustine’s Day, was historic not only for the United States, but possibly for the world. Barack Obama, son of a Kenyan scholar father and a white anthropologist mother from Kansas, became the first nominated person of color to run for the presidency of the United States. He accepted the nomination in front of over 80,000 people and tens of millions of TV viewers at Invesco Field in Denver, Colorado. His 45-minute acceptance speech capped a nearly week-long Democratic National Convention that featured some of the best political speeches in recent times. If these speeches, tinged with wit, emotion, passion, common sense, and filled with hope, dreams, and determination, were made in 2004, the course of U.S. affairs since then may have been vastly different.



But as with the United States, the American people are a resilient people. This year they have another chance to change their state of affairs. I believe that they will in a fundamental and historic way with the election of Barack Obama. Indeed, to use the overused cliché, these are going to be very interesting times.

Nearly 200 people spoke during the four-day convention. Many if not most of the speeches were emotional, if not passionate. A few themes ran across the speeches. The first and most important, which was capped by Obama, is that America is about dreams and the fulfillment of dreams. To the speakers, that is what America is all about. That is why migrants risk everything to go the United States. America is about a new start, where the impossible is possible, where hope can become real. In America, your family name and origin are not liabilities. You can be the best you can be. Work hard and you can achieve your dreams. Ted Kennedy stressed it best; "The work begins anew. The hope shall rise again. And the dream lives on."

The second is that in a world of constant change and at many times, conflict, America needs to exercise a leadership that is not unilateralist. Bill Clinton highlighted this in stressing why Obama is the right choice. Unilateralism is really a code word for bullying and in recent years, the United States has been anything but unilateral. The result is that the country has lost worldwide influence and prestige; engaged in a disastrous occupation of two countries; caused hundreds of thousands of deaths and injuries; and made more enemies. It is oxymoronic for the last remaining superpower in the world to use force, when diplomacy, development work, and police-intelligence/ counter intelligence work are the better options in addressing terrorism or combating STATELESS adversaries. Bill Clinton said perfectly; “People the world over have always been more impressed by the power of our example than by the example of our power.”

The third theme was about change. The change that the speakers spoke of was change based on family and the values of honesty, hard work, principles, ethics, sharing, and caring, and faith. Michelle Obama, Ted Kennedy, Caroline Kennedy-Schlossberg, Hilary Clinton, Beau Biden, and Joe Biden, among many others stressed this. The powerful must be grounded on what the people are experiencing; what families are going through. Because it is in spending time with Americans all over, importantly those struggling, can leaders know what needs to be changed. As Obama said, “Change doesn’t come from Washington . . . it comes to Washington.”

The differences between the parties are striking. Obama comes from a multicultural background, which is indicative of tolerance. He knows poverty from personal experiences of growing up and from working on it. Michelle Obama’s message was clear; "We want our children and all children in this nation, to know that the only limit to the height of your achievements is the reach of your dreams and your willingness to work hard for them."

Biden’s personal tragedies and his commitment to his family and community keep him grounded, with a commitment of no cronyism. As Biden said; “For every American who is trying to do the right thing, for all those people in government who are honoring the pledge to uphold the law and honor the Constitution, no longer will you hear the eight most dreaded words in the English language: The Vice President's Office is on the phone.".

Democrats favor research and investment in renewable energy, while the other party favors drilling in ecologically sensitive areas. They look at the immigration issue as a wedge issue that detracts from its economic causes, which need fixing. Obama’s “Yes We Can” parallel’s Cesar Chavez’s “Sí, se puede.” Social justice and compassion are what are lacking in the immigration debate. They favor talking and negotiating, rather than force as a blunt tool of negotiation.



Lastly, the Democrats’ message is one of HOPE. Hope energizes. It is about optimism. It is about faith and the virtues of sharing and sacrificing. The byline of fear and scare mongering, I believe, has run it last course. You can only scare people for so long to stay in power. After that, the game is up. Hope will prevail.

The Republican National Convention started with the stark reminder of Hurricane Katrina and the incompetence of the political and executive leadership three years ago. They should have consulted a feng shui expert as Hurricane Gustav hurtles toward Louisiana and New Orleans. This has forced them to reorganize the convention and cancel the speaking engagements of Pres. Bush and VP Cheney. This may bade them well, but it only highlights the reactionary actions and nervousness that abound.

There are reasons for optimism for Democrat supporters after the DNC, but the road to the White House will be narrow, rocky, and full of landmines. It will entail hard work, dedication, sacrifice, consistency, and importantly, integrity. Democrats are running on a message of CHANGE and HOPE based on VALUES and ETHICS. They must live it everyday.

For Fil-Ams, why where they invisible in DNC? Why no speakers? The interests of the Fil-Am, if not Asian-American communities, lie with the Democrats. There are initiatives such as Filipinos for Obama, but the silence and invisibility of Fil-Ams are troubling.